The surge in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have not only overturned the negative comments passed on the digital assets by top wall street asset managers a couple of months ago but is gradually making it a mainstream asset institutional investors are beginning to buy as a store of value and hedge against fiat currency devaluation.
If you have been asking or looking for a good crypto currency training for beginners, here is the replay of my 1-hour+ session on Bitcoin and crypto trading for beginners.
Last weekend, I had an opportunity to talk about the huge opportunity in this market with 500+ members of a fast-rising investment club in Nigeria, from the reason adoption of crypto will continue to surge and how they can copy the strategy I am using to grow my crypto portfolio month on month.
The video highlights the reasons people loose and how you can step out from the loss zone and join 1% of the successful traders who make the most money in the market.
Feel free to watch more videos on my crypto currency training course platform at OgaCrypto.com
Despite the global pandemic breakout that disrupted economic activities last year, investors have a lot to be thankful for.
After losing 20-25% of its value during the first quarter of 2020, the benchmark NSE ASI bounced more than 60% from the low level it dipped to close the year as the top-performing index globally, delivering 50%+.
In no particular order, the bull was largely driven by the CBN’s decision to lower interest rates, increase private-sector lending and make the fixed income market unattractive.
Now that the market has dipped by 6% and 2% in February and March respectively after rally successively for 8 months, can we say that the party is over?
In my previous post on NSE flashing bearish signs, I mentioned the key factors that could only hold the bull run going forward and how a fall off might mean that the bears are finally in charge.
Here is the recent chart of NSE All-Share Index on the daily timeframe:
A first look at the chart reveals that the market didn’t only fail to attract buyers’ interest at 39,000 support levels, but the 20-day moving average has crossed the 50-day average to the downside which means that a confirmed short term bear is in place. I expect a dip to the 36,000 basis point in the coming days or weeks.
This new trend also confirms the bearish move that follows an overbought market – before now, I have called the attention of my premium members to the Relative Strength Index and how it’s been extremely overstretched on a monthly chart.
The monthly chart had helped me see the bear ahead – since 2013, the NSE index always gives up on its strength at 40,000 – 44,000 basis so it’s normal for me to reshuffle my portfolio, and buy into stocks that will benefit from the current economic trend.
Another reason the bear may get stronger is the rising yield in the fixed income market; the CBN seems to have succumbed to the demand of fixed income investors (mutual funds and asset managers) who have been pricing in the rising risk of investing in Nigeria market (no thanks to insecurity and inflation rate). Recently the premium between local 10-year bond yield and that of the US market has widened to 9% (10% vs 1% respectively).
The attendant effect of this is that as yield continues to rise, more investors will rather move their funds from the stock market into risk-free assets, so expect a massive exodus when stocks go ex-div.
Does this mean the stock market is no longer attractive? Well, I don’t think so but we may not see the same 50%+ index return in 2021. The best way to approach the market right now is to explore a recovery strategy, find stocks that were beaten down last year, buy them and hold them till year-end.
The NSE has undergone two corrections since we started this year on a bullish note. As of this write-up thee, the index is down by 4% on a month to date, after delivering 5.32% in January 2021. The question you may likely want an answer to is, are we back to the bear you had earlier talked about since the index become overbought?
Following 5 days of successive bearish move and 1.96% drop today, let’s quickly look at the NSE index on the monthly chart and key risks that will drive the NSE to the south.
The index is now at the key resistance region of 40,000 – 44,000 basis point with RSI already overbought. Technically, this may not be the best time to accumulate equities (except you understand sector rotation, an investing strategy that requires re-allocation of fund from overbought sectors to others that are recovering from massive sell-offs) but take profit on stocks that have appreciated significantly.
The index on the monthly chart may be flashing an emerging bearish run ahead of a possible rate increase in the second half of the year. But I think we still have another brief rally that will be powered by high-yield dividend stocks after the year-end results of bellwether stocks are announced. So, my take is that as long as the 20-day MA is above the 50-day, this might just be a normal pullback that may find support at the psychological 40,000 basis points.
From the chart above, I think a close below the 50-day MA will signal the beginning of a long bear. But for now, the index is still bullish as long as the benchmark rate remains low and CBN’s restrictive policies are in place, hence renders fixed income market unattractive.
Going forward, I think it’s best to play the recovery approach by buying stocks that have been beaten down significantly in the last 1 year.
Happy new year to my esteemed and loyal readers, I hope you guys enjoyed the holidays? Well, I overfed myself with Nkowbi and some freshly made juice wine, all thanks to my wife.
In the last years, I have dished out stock recommendation, weekly analysis and alerts on this blog to you my readers and I have laughed and rejoiced over the results some of you guys have gotten, especially the ones that had recouped their losses in previous years. I have also received emails, comments, WhatsApp messages of some of your trade successes as a result of my stock recommendation, see below some of the testimonials:
And another one here
And here is another feedback:
This year, I have decided to put together a team of analyst, provide a more updated stock recommendation, build an app and a company. I know this is a lot but in the last 2 years, I and a couple of other guys have been building an app called Finvestor, you can check the Beta-testing version of the app out on the google play store only for now, here.
In preparation for the launch of the App, we are introducing premium to this blog, the NSB Premium will provide the following value,
- Access to my exclusive stock picks including entry and modest exit price.
- Guaranteed 25% increase in your portfolio value year on year.
- Priority access to Breakouts, trends and stocks to quickly mop up.
- Access to Stock market videos and tutorials.
- Access to webinars and online workshops.
- Access to investment club membership (watch out for this)
- Weekly stock newsletters.
These are the benefits my team and I have put together this year for blog subscribers that upgrade to the premium plan here, The first 100 people in the premium members will become early birds of our investment club.
As a new year present, I will be hosting a webinar on How to Screen for Winning Stocks in the Nigeria Stock Market.
In this investing webinar, I will personally show you how to cut through all the daily stock price fluctuations, ignore the market noise and narrow your focus to the strongest stocks with the biggest profit potential.
You will learn how I pick stocks that will appreciate by 20, 30 or even 50%, get in early before others and sell at higher prices to latecomers (using 3 stocks I recommended for 2021)
This webinar is FREE for existing premium members, kindly click the subscribe button to join our exclusive community of profitable investors.
Yesterday, I reviewed my trade performance, how far I have grown my capital of $1,400 to over $6,000 in the last 3-4 months of active trading in the cryptocurrency market, all I can is that It’s been a progressive journey so far. But here is the point, while I was looking at the strategy behind my swift double-digit return, I also noted 4 key mistakes traders make in the crypto market that cost them millions of Naira.
Even if you trade the stock market, these mistakes also qualify as valid reasons you haven’t been as profitable as you should.
Before I discuss these errors, let’s quickly look at how I have outperformed bitcoin price in the last 30 days, and on a month to date. In this period under review, the most popular crypto is up by 48.4% and 24.8% respectively while my crypto trading portfolio has delivered over 146.25% and 64.2% in the same period.
This isn’t magical but a result of the lesson learnt from the 4 mistakes traders when they venture into the cryptocurrency market.
In this video, I share these 4 errors and how you can void them to earn bigger returns.
If you are interested in our crypto community trading platform, OgaCrypto.com is here to take you from start to professional trading.
The NSE All-Share Index closed yesterday’s trading session on a positive note, up by 2.18%. This is a continuation of the bull run we’ve had last year but I’d be quick to say this – don’t expect the index to post another 53% run this year.
The NSE is trading within the key resistance of 40,000 – 44,000 basis point, these region it tested in 2014 and 2017 before the big sell-off.
In my new video, I share a detailed analysis of this key region the index may likely pull back from and how you should approach stock trading right now.
Don’t miss out on my next video, click here to subscribe to my channel.
You don’t need millions of Naira to trade stocks. What you really need to the right strategy and I bet you, your small capital can grow into thousands, then millions as long as you don’t allow you emotion get tied to market volatility.
One thing I have resolved to do in 2021 is to be more active on my YouTube channel, so expect more videos on stocks and cryptocurrency trading.
As a beginner, you may think the stock market is very risky but you know what? that risk of losing money would have been significantly reduced if you had followed my recommendations on this blog. At least, I can boldly say that we have achieved 45 – 50% + ROI trading local stocks in 2020, dwarfing Treasury Bill and Bonds.
If you are looking forward to a good start in 2021, here are my top 3 penny stocks to buy before January 2021.
This is a follow up on the stock market trading trick that’s actually pulling the awesome result in the cryptocurrency market. In my last post (see here), I revealed the exact strategy and the profit generated after 4 -5 days of trading the coin market.
Well! this is the last post I’d share here because this blog only focuses on Nigeria stocks. If you are interested in my live trade setups and crypto alerts, go to OgaCrypto.com, my newest platform for crypto traders.
Here is a video of the 2 Crypto’s I was watching last week before they eventually dropped to my buy zone. My buy zone is that region where I have multiple indicators confirming an oversold crypto.
Watch the video here before I show you how the crypto recovered and staging a rally from that exact region after 2 weeks of intense sell-offs.
The Federal Reserve has said it will keep buying at least $120bn of debt per month until “substantial further progress has been made” in the recovery, strengthening its support for the US economy amid a surging coronavirus outbreak.
The guidance from the Federal Open Market Committee came at the end of a two-day meeting during which Fed officials upgraded their economic projections but maintained predictions that they would keep interest rates close to zero until at least the end of 2023.
The language on debt purchases mirrors the Fed’s pledge to keep interest rates close to zero until the economy reaches full employment and inflation is on track to exceed its 2 per cent target for some time. (Source: Ft.com)
If you read the lines, you’d spot two three key factors that will drive the US economy to recovery in 2021/2022;
- the increased supply of US dollars to aid the circulation of more money.
- interest rate is expected to remain at the zero region for at least 3 years and
- the increase in inflation above 2% threshold.
Interestingly, these are key factors that are supportive of US dollar weakness in coming months, and at the same time drive gold prices above its 2020 all-time high of $2075.
The NSE All-Share Index has finally cleared the 35, 908 resistance to close yesterday’s trading session at 36, 239, up by 2%+. This is no doubt the emergence of another uptrend that could push the index to 40,000 basis point.
Now is the time to start buying fundamentally sound stocks that are not only oversold but offers juicy dividend yield. These are stocks that will attract the highest trading volume as we wrap up 2020.
I consider dividend yield of 10% and above attractive for income investors, so pay attention to stocks that are benefiting from CBN policies and are poised to report good numbers in their next quarterly, half or full year result.
The NSE All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 2.53% to close the week at 34,250.74 and N17.902 trillion respectively.
Similarly, all other indices finished lower while the NSE ASeM Index closed flat.
Thirteen (13) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than twenty-two (22) equities in the previous week. Forty-six (46) equities depreciated in price, higher than forty-five (45) equities in the previous week, while one hundred and two (102) equities remained unchanged,
higher than ninety-four (94) recorded in the previous week.
The NSE All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.72% and 0.75% to close the week at 35,137.99 and N18.365 trillion respectively.
However, all other indices finished lower with the exception of NSE Main Board, NSE Insurance, NSE ASeM and NSE Oil/Gas which appreciated by 2.61%, 1.56%, 0.19% and 1.71%.
Twenty-two (22) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than twenty-seven (27) equities in the previous week. Forty-five (45) equities depreciated in price, higher than forty-three (43) equities in the previous week, while ninety-four (94) equities remained unchanged, higher than ninety-one (91) recorded in the previous week. (Source: NSE Weekly Report)
I have been a buy and hold investor in the crypto-market for 3 – 4 years with more preference for the top 4 cryptocurrencies with the highest market capitalization. With this revelation, you’d surely not be surprised that I hold Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and the likes.
Recently, I had a chat with a friend (not the first time) who advised that I try the active trading of cryptocurrencies since I could interpret price actions on the chart and analyze short-term trend for trade opportunities. And I decided to give it a try as long as it doesn’t tie me down or make me stay glued to my system like a forex trader.
My first move was to re-activate my dormant account on one of the top cryptocurrencies exchanges in Nigeria and fund with $1000 (that’s quite huge and risky) but not after trading some of my potential picks on paper.
How do you pick these cryptocurrencies? My straight and bankable strategy is not different from what I already know and adopt in the stock market. I used the lesson I learnt from my successful trades (that had pulled over 15%, 20% or even 50% return) to power my crypto picks.
The NSE All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 2.19% to close the week at 34,885.51 and N18.228 trillion respectively.
Twenty-seven (27) equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than twenty-one (21) equities in the previous week. Forty-three (43) equities depreciated in price, lower than fifty-five (55) equities in the previous week, while ninety-one (91) equities remained unchanged,
higher than eighty-five (85) recorded in the previous week.
Analysis and Trend Forecast.
In line with my expectation (see last week digest), the market corrected at the beginning of the week but found support at the 33,418 basis point (the minor key level mentioned last week) after bargain hunters stepped in to take advantage of lower-priced equities.
This is actually a confirmation that the bull is in charge right now.
In addition to the stock recommendations shared on this blog, you can now follow my weekly digest for up-to-date analysis of NSE All-Share Index, top market-moving news and how to better manage and grow your portfolio with some of my trade ideas.
The NSE All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 2.57% to close the week at 34,136.82 and N17.838 trillion respectively. Of all the market indices, only the Insurance sector closed higher, by 0.51%.
Twenty-one (21) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than sixty-nine (69) equities in the previous week. Fifty-five (55) equities depreciated in price, higher than twelve (12) equities in the previous week, while eighty-five (85) equities remained unchanged, higher than eighty (80) recorded in the previous week. (Source: NSE)
The NSE market is currently bleeding as investors rush to book profit on their winning stocks. This is a normal pullback and I think you should see this as another round of buy opportunity before the market finds support.
The overall outlook remains positive, the bull is not over, so take advantage of this healthy correction to prepare your portfolio for take-off; this time, buy more of high yielding dividend stocks.
One of the stocks I am mopping up gradually, before the bull returns, is Lasaco Insurance Plc.
Lasaco Assurance PLC provides life and general insurance services, which includes motor, bond, contractors-all-risk, fire, burglary, aviation, marine, general accident, life, pension schemes, engineering, and oil and gas.
Lasaco Assurance is one of the few profitable businesses in the insurance of sector; the company generated a net premium of N4.8 billion in the 9-month of its current financial year, which 20.7% higher than N4 billion in the previous comparable year. Out of the total premium earned, it paid a claim and underwriting expenses of N2.065 billion and N2.082 billion respectively (that’s N4.14 billion). While these core insurance expenses are 47% higher than N2.8 billion paid in 2019, due to an unusual claim expense of N1.4 billion between July-Sept 2020, it is still well below the N4.8 billion income earned.
The NSE all-share posted its largest daily gain of 5% in more than 5 years on 12th, November 2020 which triggered a 30-minutes halt of all the stocks for the first time since the Circuit Breaker was introduced in 2016. At the end of the week, the index appreciated by a whopping 12.97% to close the week at 35, 037.46 and N18.3 trillion market cap.
So far, the index is up by 30.53% on a year to date with NSE industrial index leading the pack followed by the NSE insurance and banking index.
I emphasized the fact that the low-interest-rate environment occasioned by CBN’s policies in the last 6 months to 1 year is bullish for stocks. Besides, I think the bull may push the NSE all-share to its 2017 high of 40,000 basis – which means we still have at least 10% additional run before I consider a larger sell-off.
One of the supporting factors is the near zero rates on short-term, medium and long-term bill which now prints at 0.04% (from 0.34%), 0.15% (from 0.50%), and 0.30 (from 0.98%) respectively. Even at this unattractive rates, subscribers bid, as at the last auction, on 90-days, 182-day and 364-day was N99.9 billion, N92.2 billion and N411.1 billion, amounting to N603.2 billion.
What’s surprising to me was when the CBN made the allotment, it sold N19.8 billion for the short term, N10 billion for the medium and N138b for the long-term – that’s N167.8 billion out of N603.2 billion, the question is what happens to the N435.4 billion that was unallotted?